Weakonomi¢s » lists

The Megalist of Calling the Housing Bottom

The Weakonomist — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:23:50 +0000

As of this writing we are converging on the 6th year of this housing mess, and for almost 6 years we’ve heard people from the head of the Federal Reserve to real estate experts to Jim Cramer say we’ve reached the bottom of the housing market. For too long self-interested parties have made claims the worst may be over. They’ve all been wrong. It’s time to chronicle this journey. Starting with the end of January in 2012 and going back to 2006 I’ve compiled a list. Please note the listed sources aren’t always the ones making the claims, it’s just who published the claim.

Please enjoy the list:

1/31/2012 Homeownership rates fall to 66% as downturn nears a bottom – USA Today
1/10/2012 Has The Housing Market Hit Its Bottom? – Forbes
12/8/2011 Is the Housing Bottom Finally in Sight? – Kiplinger (my favorite!)
9/27/2011 This Has To Be The Housing Bottom – Seeking Alpha
6/21/2011 The Housing Bottom Is Here: Economist Russell Price Explains – Daily Finance
4/24/2011 We Could Be Near a Housing Bottom – Seeking Alpha
2/2/2011 Why the Housing Bottom Might Be Here – US News
1/28/2011 U.S. housing bottom seen in mid-2011: poll - Reuters
11/19/2010 Housing downturn has hit bottom – The Business Journal
10/25/2010 Rising Home Sales Point to a Housing Recovery – Daily Finance
10/8/2010 3 Signs the Mortgage Market Has Hit Bottom – Smart Money
5/12/2010 US Housing Prices Projected To Reach Bottom In Q3 2010 – NuWire Investor
4/27/2010 We Have Met the Housing Bottom, Maybe – The Atlantic
4/22/2010 More Signs of a Housing Bottom – Seeking Alpha
1/29/2010 In hard-hit markets, some see signs of bottom – MSNBC
2/12/2010 Builders: Housing bottom is here – SunSentinal
12/15/2009 Builders Say 2009 Marks Housing’s Bottom, 57% Predict Revenues Increase in 2010 (I checked, and a few did have revenue growth, most didn’t, and 2011 was worse) – World Property Channel
10/30/2009 Moody’s: No Housing Bottom Until Q3 2010 – Wealth Daily
8/21/2009 We Called It: The Housing Bottom – The Street
5/13/2009 Yet Another Greenspan Housing Bottom Call – Barry Ritholtz
2/9/2009 U.S. Housing Market May Bottom in 2009, Zandi Says – Bloomberg
10/27/2008 UCLA sees O.C. housing’s bottom by next summer – OC Register
8/27/2009 Cramer Calls the Housing Bottom (Q3 2009) – CNBC
8/17/2008 Greenspan sees housing bottom, criticizes bailout – Fosters
7/24/2008 The Media Are Missing the Housing Bottom – National Review (Larry Kudlow called this one)
2/21/2008 No housing bottom until ’10: CP Morgan – Reuters
1/15/2008 Mortgage bankers expect housing market to bottom out in third quarter – BizTimes
1/8/2008 Stable Existing-Home Sales Expected in Early 2008, then Gradual Rise – National Association of Realtors
12/19/2007 Is Collapse of Home Prices About To Hit the Bottom? – The Sun New York
12/1/2007 Will Home Prices Hit Bottom in 2008? Yes, but . . . – Kiplinger (again? of course!)
11/26/2007 Deere Sees a Housing Bottom in 2008 – Seeking Alpha
9/14/2007 Hovnanian Chief Says Housing Bottom Is `Very Near – Bloomberg
8/16/2007 Contradictory News Suggests Housing Bottom Could Be In View – Realty Times
5/25/2007 Housing Market Nears Bottom – Forbes
4/20/2007 Housing Bottom Callers – Calculated Risk (Hank Paulson here)
4/17/2007 IMF believes US housing market may bottom out – Reuters
2/17/2007 NAR Says Existing Home Sales Have Hit Bottom – Realty Times
2/8/2007 Housing still on down slope Economists say no recovery until midyear; prices face record fall – Market Watch
12/21/2006 Housing ‘close to bottom,’ realtor-group economist says – Market Watch
12/5/2006 Home builders see bottom of housing slump – CNN Money
11/15/2006 Housing slide may deepen; New forecast sees bottom in 2008 – Boston Globe
10/6/2006 Greenspan Says `Worst’ May Be Past in U.S. Housing – Bloomberg

When will we see the real bottom? It could be soon, one of the few people I trust to have an unbiased opinion (and someone who has attempted to track all the prior claims for a bottom) explains there are actually two housing bottoms to look for and they may be closer than you think. We’ll see if he’s right, or if he gets added to this list.

If you have more articles you want listed claiming a housing bottom, put them in the comments. While there are many stories that talk about the bottom, for the sake of this list just look for headlines.

Image: Nick Bastian Tempe, AZ

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Ten Reasons Why Professional Athletes Are Blue Collar Workers

The Weakonomist — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 14:59:35 +0000

The Super Bowl is now just a couple of weeks away. Tom Brady and Eli Manning, two of the most well-paid athletes in the game, will go at for all the glory of football. And then when that’s over much of the sporting world will focus on professional basketball. Baseball too is only a couple of months away now. These athletes make so much money it’s hard to remember that they are in fact just like many Americans. They’re just blue-collar guys doing what they do.

Don’t think so? Consider the following:

The labor is physically demanding. Injuries are common, they’re just a hazard of the job. You just don’t want to be out of commission for too long.
Of course, you don’t want to get hurt on the job, so safety gear is a must.
There’s a huge benefit to unionizing. We’ve seen both the NBA and NFL engage in lockout battles with their unionized employees. While a lockout can be initiated by the leagues, make no mistake, it’s the equivalent of a strike. And the labor union and company management/owners have to come together and reach an agreement. They even get pensions.
You might make good money, but the guys in suits make more. This just seems like a fact of life. Even in the NBA, a properly run organization is going to pay the guys in the suits better than the guys working on the front lines.
Experience is everything. Sure the up-and-comer doesn’t respect the veterans, but all the hourly guys know the experienced guys are worth more than they’re paid.
The blue collar skillset is likely not enough to move up in the organization. Sure you might be a star in the production line, but that isn’t enough to move up. You either need to buy your way to the top (Michael Jordan now owns a team) or convince someone to take a chance on putting you in management.
You can go pro as a teen: it’s less common today than it was years ago. Now it’s usually smart to go to school for a couple of years first and hone your craft.
Your life revolves around a clock. You’re expected to produce a certain amount in each shift. If you come up short towards the end of your day, you might need to work hard and fast or the competition will crush you.
Professional athletes and blue collar workers alike dress like their peers. It’s easy to order uniforms in bulk and it’s much easier to manage a team if they all look the same. It can also create camaraderie.
And most often everyone is wearing uniforms with their names on them.

Image: Keith Allison

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

The Best of 2011 List

The Weakonomist — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 14:55:02 +0000

This blog lacks the editorial patience to determine what the best posts of the year were. However, we do have enough time to pull together a big list of other publisher’s best of 2011. Many of them are lists within lists:

Lifehacker Best of 2011

Main Street most popular stories of 2011

Top political scandals of the year (from ABC News) – And the wiener is….

2011 review of life science (from New Scientist)

CBS News review of 2011 including: notable deaths, best quotes, and of course news.

Sports news of the year from USA Today – Sports are usually boring, but this year had all the drama of an Oscar film.

2011 in nine charts, Economist style

Health news of the year from CNN – AIDs, cancer, and concussions.

The Atlantic’s super site of 2011s including:

Yahoo’s year in review including:

Harvard Business Review’s top posts of the year

2011 year in financial blogging (not personal finance) from The Reformed Broker

Tech’s biggest misfires of 2011 from Engadget

And last but not least. In fact, it should be first and most: Dave Barry’s year in review. Always a great laugh.

Happy New Year and if you’ve got other lists throw them in the comments.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

12 Days Of Christmas

The Weakonomist — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 16:34:19 +0000

On the twelfth day of Christmas my true love gave to me:

12 Republicans rambling
11 Obama staffers tweeting
10 Cops pepper spraying
9 Occupiers chanting
8 Percent unemployment
7 Candidates left
6 percent up in the Dow
5 DOLLAR FEES
4 percent interest rates
3 dollar gas
2 dictators dead
And the 1% making Cratchit work late

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

The Weakonomist’s Favorite Things

The Weakonomist — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 15:29:49 +0000

Stop right there, you will not find any of these things under your chair. As we close this year I want to share the things about it I enjoyed the most. This isn’t so much an endorsement as it is literally a guy using a pulpit of his own creation to call out the things he loved the most this year. So enjoy, or don’t, I don’t really care.

Keurig coffeemakers: My wife doesn’t drink coffee so it’s rarely made sense for us to have a normal coffeemaker. Even when I did have one I was so lazy I rarely used it. But we found some leftover giftcards from our wedding and a coupon so we bought a Keurig earlier this year. I love it. The K-cups are pricey (70 cents a pop retail) but much cheaper than coffee shops. But what makes it a real winner is using a reusable filter so the machine can brew regular coffee, which is no more pricey than a typical coffeemaker. Keurig makes their own but it doesn’t work that well. I recommend the “Solofill” branded one that’s sold in many store or on Amazon. Just don’t actually put coffee up to the “fill level” because it will stop the machine up.

Moe’s Southwest Grill: I’ve been eating at Moe’s for years, but it was only recently I realized they do good stuff there. They use cage-free chicken, grain fed beef, hormone free pork, and even whole grain tortillas. You can certainly make their food bad for you, but you can also make it very healthy and feel better knowing you’re eating quality ingredients. I don’t eat meat often, but when I do it’s nice to do it at places like Moe’s.

Total Wine: I’m not a big wine drinker, but Total Wine has one of the best beer selections out there too. And I really appreciate stores that let you just get one bottle of a beer in order to try it. Unfortunately for people not on the east or west coast, you probably don’t know what this store is. Sorry.

Fresh Market: Once again, if you’re not east of the Mississippi you may not have heard of this store either. It’s a grocery store that sells goods similar to a Whole Foods or maybe a Trader Joes. Typically organic or on the high end, they have the best produce I’ve ever seen. They also offer a number of products (like tons of jellies and honey) that you can’t find elsewhere. But the best thing is the food they’ve already made for you. In the middle of the store is basically a buffet designed to make you drool. And if you like pastries or breads, they make tons of those on sight. Service is always great, and there’s usually tons of samples.

Flipboard: This is a new app to the iPhone but has been on the iPad for some time. It’s a beautiful way to read the news in a magazine like format. It’s also one of the few apps that gets me to read news that don’t have anything to do with technology or economics.

Google Maps: I could say simply my iPhone but want to call this out specifically. Google Maps was one of the main reasons I first got an iPhone back in 2008 and it remains one of the most important apps I have. It gets used regularly for traffic, finding faster ways around town, and looking for landmarks in Streetview.

IKEA: Once again you’re shafted because there aren’t that many IKEAs in the country, but they are the best furniture store around. When first starting out my wife and I bought a coffee table for $20. Now we’re looking for a nicer one and find ourselves still at IKEA because they have quality products for price below the competition still.

Power drill: Thanks to things like IKEA and a move recently I’ve been screwing lots of things together or taking them apart. A drill with screwdriver heads is so invaluable. The downside is hardware stores are starting to look more and more like toy stores for me.

Readers: Most of my readers will never see this post. Most of my readers come from Google searching for a specific topic. But there are a few hundred of you out there that read my blog every day. I appreciate you, and it means a lot to me that you take 3 seconds out of your day to the read headline and then ignore the post. But the readers I appreciate most are the ones that literally read every word I write, and thus are the only ones that will actually read the bottom of the post.

Once again (and for the last time) I’ll ask you readers to tell me what your favorite things are.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

What To Hope For Next Year

The Weakonomist — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 15:13:04 +0000

A peaceful resolution to the Euro crisis: As of right now this is the biggest issue facing the developed world. As scary as this crisis might be, we’ve come a long way since WWII.

Enough turnover in Congress to make them more able to enable legislation: At this point I don’t really care which party controls the legislature, because there’s such a small chance of Obama actually loosing next year. A prevailing idea over the last year has been that the economy is waiting on stability in Congress. I didn’t think that was the case earlier in the year, but I’m buying into it. If the GOP takes over it would be interesting to see if they actually passed the legislation they talk about.

Presidential campaigns that make it hard to pick who one should vote for: Even though Obama will likely win, I want a candidate that will keep it close and make me really think about who I’m voting for. This will bring both candidates to the center.

An increase in interest rates (though not due to a credit downgrade): Low interest rates haven’t spurred the economy. Rates need to go up before banks can even make money again on interest rate spread, much less make it worth the risk. However we don’t want rates to increase simply because the US credit rating gets downgraded again, which is a risk.

No collegiate scandals: There is nothing sadder than when a university is given a lashing for the behavior of someone who should know better. Even sadder is when it’s all due to sports. It would be great to think most of the scandals have fleshed themselves out so we can get back to being proud of our schools.

Stable energy price: Nothing could derail a recovery faster.

A new world changing product from Apple: Love them or hate them, but they keep pushing the industry forward unlike any other.

Decline of social issues in policy discussions: At worst these issues should be settled in the states. At best, social issues don’t have a place in government. Most ideas identified as “progressive” will eventually happen. I can’t wait to get a tax deduction for my sister-wives.

China’s continued growth: There is a worry of a real estate bubble in China. Hopefully that is not the case as China’s economy has helped hold the world together. We will continue to need this. Besides, as China’s economy improves wages increase and manufacturers are more likely to make their goods closer to home.

Some (macro) economist gets proven wrong: This is so hard to do, but everyone would just love it. Doesn’t matter who.

250,000 new jobs per month: This is the magic number we really need to decrease the unemployment rate at the same time people return to the workforce. Anything less is simply “better than job losses”.

Once again I defer to you, what do you hope for next year?

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

The Worst Ideas Of 2011

The Weakonomist — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 14:51:26 +0000

The year is coming to a close and it’s time to look at some of the ideas that were either introduced this year or killed off. These are just a few that I could think of, I really need the help of you readers to identify all the other bad ideas from the year:

Rebranding rich people: Republicans in Congress started referring to rich people as “Job Creators”. Obama started it with the idea of raising taxes on the rich only. There’s been little proof showing rich people are the job creators, and opponents are quick to point out that with 70% of the economy being consumption, it’s customers that are the job creators. We’ll see next November if the job creators mantra lived on.
Ma Bell is back? Not quite. AT&T wasn’t allowed to merge with T-Mobile. Someone probably read a history book for once.
Countries can share a currency without sharing policy: I can’t wait for the 2032 Olympics when the USA takes on the USE for dominance in the world’s most popular sport: football. Of course what kind of football game that will be is unknown. I suspect in 2012 much of Europe will take a major step towards unity, but it will need at least a generation to really converge culturally.
Wikileaks to take over the world: You’ve forgotten about Julian Assange haven’t you. Whether it was the world converging on one guy or just that guy’s ego being too big, the controversy around him took down Wikileaks too.
The world is ending: Maybe next year.
Oprah can retire: Oprah thought she would step down from her show and run a network. Well the network sucks and no one is watching, so she’s coming back with a show.
Tea party policies will work: Scott Walker learned the hard way that the point of the Tea Party isn’t really to improve things, but to maintain the status quo. Radical policy just isn’t in the cards.
People care about professional sports: Despite ESPN’s greatest efforts, very few people actually cared about the battles over work agreements in football and basketball. It was worsened by people not having an appetite for a perceived (if inaccurate) battle between millionaires and billionaires.
That government will actually shut down: The first time people paid attention. Now even the most naive citizens understand the game. Somewhere a wolf is weeping.
You’re bigger than the show: Simon Cowell and Charlie Sheen are both learning their shows can survive, and even thrive without them. Poor Cowell’s new show can’t even get half the ratings of his old one.
It’s Friday, Friday: Maybe that wasn’t a bad idea, but it is nauseating.
Pretty women who can’t sing dominate album sales: Adele, I love your pipes and love you even more for not trying to sell albums with hotness.
Protests without a goal will work: Even the Daily Show started making fun of the protestors. Many protests worked this year, for good reason.
Jobs that leave the country will never come back: A personal favorite. Samsung is now making Apple chips in the US, and more and more foreign auto manufacturers are bring jobs back to the US to make cars here. This is the result of a truly flattening world.

Okay readers, what did I miss? Load up the comments!

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

The 99%s I Hate

The Weakonomist — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 14:45:57 +0000

People who complain about 1st world problems without (once in a while) acknowledging that we are lucky to have 1st world problems: Look, you aren’t going to see me in Africa helping starving children and I’m not going to be the first person on the scene after a tsunami wipes out thousands that lived in tiny huts. But I at least note how lucky I am to just complain about traffic, idiots in Congress, or my wireless provider trying to sneak a fee into my bill.

The majority that don’t accept responsibility for their failings: When we succeed, we tend to think it’s all by our own doing. When we fail, it was because of someone one else. Maybe something contributed to your failure, but you played a part too. The lack of personal responsibility has increasingly become a problem.

Service at any place that caters to the 99%: 99% of service to the 99% sucks. I haven’t figured out the formula yet, but it looks like unless the mark-up on a product is at least 50% then the service for that product will suck. My recent experience has to do with moving and delivery. You get what you pay for with these people and not once has anyone not delivered something broken or left our place muddy. Back office customer service is a joke too. Only in coffee shops, Pottery Barn, and uncrowded bars can you expect good customer service. Very few companies targeting the 99% offer great service as a business model. Zappos comes to mind.

Employees that aren’t customers: I’ve worked for a number of companies, both large and small and in some cases the employees just don’t understand their own customer. Do you think Mike Duke, CEO of Walmart, does his grocery shopping at Walmart? Maybe he sends his housekeeper there, but I doubt even that. When I was working for a bank I was given special customer service because I was an employee. I couldn’t get the service I deserved given my balances and activity. So when someone would tell me about a bad experience I couldn’t relate. Imagine how this translates at the executive level of any company. There are exceptions of course, a gay man working in the finance department of Victoria’s Secret is just going to have do his best without being a customer.

Gawking at the cost of a Super Bowl ad: Next year’s ads will cost $X million for 30 seconds. That’s so much money why would anyone do it? Super Bowl ads are a no brainer for any company with the budget. Ads are always about how many people you can engage for your dollar. By this definition Super Bowl ads are a cheap solution for many. Not only are there a ton of people watching, but so many of them watch just for the commercials. It’s like Christmas for the advertising arms of car companies, beer companies, and whatever blockbuster movie is coming out in May that year.

Supporting one candidate for President: Candidates love the mindless hoard. They donate and you don’t have to do anything to keep you happy. Just pretend to care about a certain social issue and you got the group. My mind explodes at the idea of someone supporting a President over something so trivial. As if that controversial stance will even get turned into law with them in charge, even if the candidate cared about it. The idea of loving a candidate so much that you would host parties to talk about him/her, raise money for them, or simply blindly support them is saddening. When was the last time Candidate X lived up to all the promises they made when they became President X?

Don’t forget to check out the 1%s I hate.

A note on the photo: It’s pretty obvious that it was photoshopped, but it’s still funny for the initial reaction. I don’t know what bank that is but if they want me to take it down and contact me I will oblige.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

The 1%s I Hate

The Weakonomist — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 15:16:23 +0000

The rural population that makes mail too expensive: The postal service is required to make shipping available to anyone anywhere in the US accessible and at the same price. It’s why a stamp costs the same no matter where you’re coming from or where it’s going to. The cost is clearly more to send a letter to Alaska than it is to send a check across town, but the price is the same. The 1% most rural population make things so much more expensive for everyone. They need to have easy access to a post office and so much of the bloat that is bankrupting the postal service has come from serving this entitled 1%. Talk about socialism.

People who back into parking spots: Seriously, unless you’re about to rob a bank, you don’t need to save the extra 7/10 of a second it takes to back out of a spot. You take up so much more time backing into a space, it inconveniences everyone around you. And you aren’t very good at it anyway. Is it going to help you beat the traffic? Do you anticipate some kind of emergency? Do you hate the way the back of your car looks? Please explain to me why it’s cool to take up everyone’s time to do this!

Drivers with political statements on the back of their cars: Oh thank you. I was on my way to get an abortion right now and because your bumper sticker says abortion is bad I’m going to take a pass. That’s what stopped me. And it’s so great that you eat local but drive 45 minutes to the nearest farm to do it. My 5 minute trip to the grocery store was better for the environment. And I’m sorry 1999 Honda CR-V owner, Kerry/Edwards lost, you can remove the sticker now. And 1980s truck owner, did you really read all 1100 pages to find out who John Galt really is? I would just die to have a real conversation with you about your Objectivism (if you know what that is). Or do you just not like taxes? The 1% that put such things on their cars can only hope to get 1 thumbs up for every 5 middle fingers. Free speech is great, and I respect that. But man are you annoying.

Those that think their success is only due to themselves: Really, you had all this success and it was due to how great YOU are. No one succeeds without good coaches, supportive families, customers with money, or some amount of luck. You are successful and you rose to the top. That is great, but you can’t get to the top alone.

Antibacterial resistant germs: Bastards, this is actually less than 1%, but those jerks just won’t die. Now that they’ve grown and grown, they’re probably at like 5% now. Those antibacterial commercials should have to retest monthly to see if it’s still 99.9% or whatever they kill.

Friends that post pity-parties/angry messages/try to influence opinion on Facebook: I don’t care if you hate your job. I don’t care that the lady at Starbucks has it out for you. And I really don’t care that you think that society is falling apart and your moral character is so strong. No one, not even the people who used to call you friends before you got all combative on Facebook care.

Followup – The people that actually respond to these messages thus encouraging further behavior: Seriously people? This 1% just encourages that 1%.
Followup – The people who complain about such conversations but won’t block the people: Maybe this is like 10% for some people. But as soon as I see crap like this on Facebook you’re blocked and gone. Don’t post anything on Facebook that you wouldn’t say to someone’s face. My rule is simpler, don’t say anything you wouldn’t say at a high school reunion to that person’s face. Or in front of your mother.

Don’t forget to check out the 99%s I hate.

Image: mskogly

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

Weak Links: From Cocaine to Wall Street to Sperm

The Weakonomist — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 15:27:27 +0000

How Much of a $100k Salary is Taxed Around the World: You could move to Europe and pay more taxes, or go to Russia and pay less. Or, America, you can maybe not complain so much. (Economist)

How the Plummeting Price of Cocaine Fueled the Nationwide Drop in Violent Crime: Need I say more? (The Atlantic)

Why our brains make us laugh: Interestingly, humor is a reward system in our heads. We are rewarded for finding errors in logic and data. This is what makes jokes funny too. Thankfully, this research does not ruin humor. (Boston Globe)

Should you be able to get rich in charity? Basic economics says yes. So long as you add more value than you are paid, you should be able to get rich. A guy at HBR has the stones to say it out loud. Not sure if I agree yet, but the argument is compelling (Harvard Business Review).

Black Market Sperm: Sperm is actually expensive, and anything that’s expensive that can be readily replicated will be offered on the cheap in a black market. (Freakonomics)

Time to start negotiating with dentists?: A study shows a wide variation in the fees dentists charge for various procedures. Be extra cautious if you go to a dentist you may not be comfortable with. In my wife’s case, they recommended a number of fillings that turned out to not be necessary when she checked with her childhood dentist. (NY Times Bucks Blog)

Wall Streeters now working as cabbies: Some keep resumes in the front seat, others are just trying to pay some bills. Lately Wall Street has been cutting jobs. Keep in mind that getting to the 1%, or even the 10%, is not a permanent thing for many. (NY Times)

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.