It’s called confirmation bias, and the most educated amongst us can’t help but bend to its laws. In fact, the more educated people are, the easier it is to find data that supports their claim. This is why we fight over climate control. This is why so many well-educated people in Congress can barely agree on what kind of toilet paper to use. Educated people are really good at finding data to support how they feel about a topic. It’s also very easy to manipulate a narrative. An example follows:
Since Obama took office (in 2009, one year lead-up also provided), total government employees have fallen. Not increased, but fallen.
Hard to craft a narrative about big government with that kind of trend. Unless you consider state government employment:
It might actually just be local government that has experienced declines. Alone this looks like a simple trend, but what if you just look at the government Obama is in charge of, the federal one:
Though close to flat, federal employees have increased slightly since Obama took office. Although not as much as one would expect. So let’s shape the story a bit more. Take out Postal Service workers, who largely operate on their own budget outside of the President and Congress. Here’s USPS employment and the federal count without USPS.
Finally, we have a narrative, and it only took 5 charts. We started with under Obama total government jobs have fallen, but ended showing they’d actually increased. Both are legitimate arguments. The charts prove nothing. All they can do is back up a belief someone had already decided on. Any of these charts can feed a preconceived notion about government or the President.
This is but an example of a practice that occurs in the media, politics, public and private sector, sports, investing, academics. It doesn’t matter. Just focus on the data, not the story someone crafts around it.
And in case you were excited about showing how much federal government excluding USPS had grown under Obama. Please see below:
Data source: St Louis Federal Reserve (big spikes are Census hiring)
 By The Weakonomist |
The Weakonomist is the founder of Weakonomics. Clicking the picture of the puppy will tell you more about him. If you like what you're reading consider subscribing to the blog, following him on Twitter, and checking out the related posts below. Please consider a donation if you really enjoy Weakonomics. Also keep in mind that nothing I say can be construed as financial advice. |
