I am really not a fan of polling. They capture someone’s opinion at a time it doesn’t matter. We all know Congress has terrible approval ratings, but almost every person that runs for re-election gets it. Why? For one thing people have a better perception of their elected official than the actions of Congress as a whole. But I think the main reason is that these polls really don’t matter when it comes to elections.
Do people really regret voting for someone so much that they don’t vote to re-elect them? Unlikely. Look at the chart below, it’s Bush’s approval ratings all during his presidency:
Obviously 9/11 had a significant impact on approval ratings, but by the time he started campaigning for reelection Bush was polling just about where Obama is now. A campaign will have the effect of increasing Obama’s approval ratings. That’s the whole point. And between Obama and whomever he runs against they’ll probably raise over a billion dollars just to try to move that approval rating just a few points in either direction.
What I’d really like to see is some polling company track the approval ratings of 1000 people over an entire election cycle. If someone really doesn’t approve to the incumbent, I’d like to see if that really translates into them not voting for someone. I endorsed Obama in 2008 but I’m on the fence right now. Will that really translate into me not voting for him? No clue.
Please polling companies, do something useful. But if you did track these numbers and learned that the polling results today don’t translate into actual lost votes tomorrow, you kind of put yourself out of business. Guess we’re probably stuck with this crap forever.
 By The Weakonomist |
The Weakonomist is the founder of Weakonomics. Clicking the picture of the puppy will tell you more about him. If you like what you're reading consider subscribing to the blog, following him on Twitter, and checking out the related posts below. Please consider a donation if you really enjoy Weakonomics. Also keep in mind that nothing I say can be construed as financial advice. |
