In short: there’s a reason I’m not a economist. But to be honest if I tracked real economist’s predictions, I’m probably doing pretty well with my predictions. If you don’t remember (I barely did), I made some predictions at the beginning of last year and invited you readers to offer some as well. Here’s the list:

Mine:

  • Oil will tank, and then rise again, just like 2009
  • Timothy Geithner will still be in office
  • The gold bubble will pop, dramatically
  • Economic growth will continue, but be very slow
  • Unemployment won’t be below 9%
  • The Fed will start to raise interest rates

Yours:

  • Gold bubble pop won’t be dramatic
  • Economic growth from public sector, but not private
  • Fed raises interest rates in second half of 2010
  • Gold to $1000, going as low as $800 (me in follow-up)
  • Fed raises rates above 1% (me again)
  • Oil at $120 in the summer
  • Employment better, but high

So let’s start with oil.  No one was close.  Oil was pretty volatile, but to be honest it didn’t tank so I can’t claim a win for this one.

Geithner, he’s still in office and I think the focus is moving away from the Treasury towards the Republican House so he’s job is safe for now.

Gold, it didn’t pop.  Not even close.  It did the opposite.  I have a new theory about gold which I’ll talk about tomorrow.

Economic growth continuing, but slowly.  I think I was pretty close on this one.

Unemployment: this was an easy prediction to make, and I was right the whole way.

I couldn’t have been more wrong about the Fed and interest rates. In fact, it’s the Fed that is still fighting to keep interest rates low!

This pretty much covers about everything.  If you had some predictions you got right (and can prove you made them a year ago), drop them in the comments.  Happy New Year my friends.

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  By The Weakonomist 		The Weakonomist is the founder of Weakonomics. Clicking the picture of the puppy will tell you more about him. If you like what you're reading consider subscribing to the blog, following him on Twitter, and checking out the related posts below. Please consider a donation if you really enjoy Weakonomics. Also keep in mind that nothing I say can be construed as financial advice.

categories: economics