It’s no secret that Social Security is a mess. Way back in the days of George Bush the Republican Administration tried to get reform off the ground, but no one cared at the time because everyone was going to retire by selling their homes. When the economy does well, we don’t care about social security (SS) because it matters less. When times are bad we’re too focused on getting back to the good times to care.

Well good times or bad, SS is a mess. It was designed on the premise of a Ponzi scheme. And as long as the population kept growing it wasn’t a problem. But the post WWII adults weren’t into prophylactics so we ended up with a bloated generation. They stocked up the SS fund quite well, but because of more people living longer and Congress treating the trust like a money machine, SS has problems.

But there is good news about SS. People know that the system is broken and people like me generally expect to pay in and get nothing back. Even the old people expect to have their benefits cut or altered.

The part of me that thinks about what’s good for the country thinks this is the right time to go ahead and introduce reform. Since we already know the system is broken, let’s go ahead and fix it. But the politician in me knows that it’s not going to happen, because whichever side of the aisle introduces legislation will risk alienating the constituency partially by the other side objecting to every measure. The Democrats have control for the moment, but they wouldn’t dare doing anything that could lose a voter right now. And the Obama administration has seen the consequences of trying to do too much at once. DC is like a game of pool, as much as you want to just pick up the 8 ball and put in the corner, you have to knock all the other balls in first. Who is going to have the stones to break the rules? No one currently in office.

And just to review, what will reform look like? Could be anything, but we’ll probably see a combination of tax increases and raising the retirement age. The program should be phased out, but we’ll see that right around the time Medicare shuts down and Wall Street converts to non-profit.

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categories: government, personal finance    

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