
The economy is fueled by consumption. We all know this. But since you read my blog you’ve probably observed that despite a recession/slow recovery going on, every time you go out to eat or go shopping, you’re seeing plenty of people spending thousands of dollars. Target, Bloomingdale’s, Olive Garden… whatever it is you’re seeing people there. Some recession right?
I’ve pondered this on Twitter in some form or another. Maybe everyone is just window-shopping or something? What’s actually going on is we have all been blinded by our own ignorance. And by we, I basically mean me.
I haven’t been observing the recession when I go to these places. Sure sales at retail stores like Target have suffered, but I’m just not paying attention in the places where the recession is really being felt. This is mostly because I don’t see it. I’m an educated white male with too much confidence and the analytical skills of an MIT engineer. I’m not in a recession. My parents make decent money, and The Sheconomist’s parents are fortunate to be a full-time mom and 6-figure dad. My family isn’t in a recession. We all feel like it though since we’ve had our job security questioned and we’ve watched our investments tumble in value since 2008. But we aren’t in a recession. There’s a good chance you’re just like me.
The NY Times created a tool that shows who really is in a recession. It’s a demographic breakdown of unemployment in the US. You can use it in a couple of ways. Don’t select any options and just mouse over the different lines to see demographics, or select categories and see who is really suffering from unemployment. Play with it a bit and you’ll soon figure out a few patterns. The notable things though are: white people have the lowest unemployment, the more education you have the lower the unemployment, and younger people have the highest unemployment.
Without making too many generalizations, the closer you are to blue collar work, the harder you’ve got it in this recession. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a recession blamed on the white collars of Wall Street. My demographic is not really in a recession at all. Employment is pretty good for people like me.
This raises an important question. If the people we observe at restaurants and malls aren’t in a recession, then how important is their spending to the economy? As I stated at the beginning of this post the economy in the US relies on consumption. However, if white-collar consumption hasn’t changed much and the economy is still in the crapper, does that mean the economy is reliant on the lower-income, lower educated population?
Drawing some correlations between the NY Times tool and general statistics on purchasing we could probably conclude that. The statistician in me won’t let me go that far though, so we can simply ask the question: who is the most important demographic to the American economy?
I don’t know the answer, but the speculation we’ve formed above is starting to be called a “blue collar recession” in some circles. To be honest, I feel like an idiot for not thinking of this before. The realities of this were all around me. People like me haven’t suffered much. People like me shop in the same places, and they keep spending money. If we’re still spending but the economy has suffered so much then what is going on?
While I was wondering this, others are running out of money for their one month allotment from the unemployment agencies all over the country. The Friday after Thanksgiving will mean nothing to them. Instead, on Monday, November 30, they’ll line up outside Wal-Mart at 11:59 PM to go spend money on basic necessities when that unemployment/welfare check hits their accounts. There’s your recession.
Photo: symic
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Both blue-collar and white-collar spending are important to the economy. I presume that there is more white-collar spending. But the blue-collar spending is a large enough percentage for a cutoff to cause a recession.
I think you are right that many white collars have not yet felt much personal impact from the recession. But these things work in waves. The next wave will be hitting more white collars.
It’s like in a battle in which the first-line infantry are being taken down. The white collars are not being shot at just yet but their safety zone has been eroded.
Rob
Rob Bennett´s last blog ..“Most Real People Seem to Be Losing Faith”