http://www.s152957355.onlinehome.us/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl?num=1242084985

My partner’s name is John Walter Russell. He owns the site at http://www.Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com. He posts at discussion boards using the screen-name “JWR1945″ and the sign-off “Have fun!”

I obviously have no association with the individual who wrote the words quoted above, who is using my partner’s screen-name and sign-off as an act of deception on the readers of this blog.

I provide a history of the abusive posting tactics employed by those trying to block discussions of the realities of safe withdrawal rates and other important investment topics in an article at my web site that sets forth the text of an e-mail that I sent to my congressman (Rep. Frank Wolf) re this matter.

http://www.passionsaving.com/internet-harassment.html

Rob

Rob Bennett’s last blog post..Podcast #101 — Confidence Limits, Logic Chains and Emotion Waves

Some invest as if they know precisely what is going to happen in the future and invest accordingly. I think they are fooling themselves and the historical data backs up that impression. Investing as if you know exactly what is going to happen in the future rarely works as a long-term strategy. Others believe they know nothing about what is going to happen in the future and invest according. I think they are also fooling themselves and the historical data backs up that impression too. Investing as if you know nothing about what is going to happen in the future (by failing to change your stock allocation in response to big price swings) ALSO rarely works as a long-term strategy.

The historical data shows that the odds are that we are going to see another huge price crash over the next two or three or four years. To ignore that reality is risky. But to over-rely on it is also risky. We don’t know for certain that there is going to be another huge price crash. And we don’t have much idea at all of when it is going to come. I believe that to invest effectively you need to be able to accept that we are not living in a black-and-white world. You need to be prepared for more than one possible outcome.

Rob

Rob Bennett’s last blog post..Podcast #101 — Confidence Limits, Logic Chains and Emotion Waves

But from reading his writing here:
http://www.passionsaving.com/rob-bennett-weaknesses.html
and here:
http://www.s152957355.onlinehome.us/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl
He is a big advocate of P/E10 to time purchases.

Rob, why should I not just wait in cash on the sidelines until the 50% crash you predict, then buy in once P/E10 is in single digits? Seems I could really clean up. After all: “Valuations Matter!”

My take is that stocks are priced to provide strong long-term (10 years out) returns.

I also believe that we are likely to see another huge price crash on the way to realizing those good long-term returns.

Lots of people have not yet fully absorbed the long-term significance of our economic crisis. News that is too big to take in all at once is taken in gradually over time. There will of course be price jumps in coming years. But I expect to see valuations go to about 50 percent of where they are now before we have all the bad feelings (that are the flip side of the excessive “good” feelings of the out-of-control bull of the 1990s) out of our system.

The smart thing is to focus on the long term. The long term is far more predictable than the short term. The long term is looking better for stock investors than it has looked for a long, long time.

Rob

Rob Bennett’s last blog post..Passive Investing — The Great Mistake

Just use your head, dollar cost average, and you will see good results. If you keep selling off and buying, you will be screwed!

MLR’s last blog post..Can I Get a Job with a Misdemeanor?

Or just ignore it haha…

Also, are we really in a recession? Aren’t we just re-adjusting to consume/produce at capacity instead of significantly above lol…

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